Futurology/Election 2008

According to the Constitution of the United States (Article II, Sec. I), every four years a presidential candidate is picked by his party and runs for office. The one to score a majority or 270 Electoral votes becomes the new president. It is unlikely that a third party candidate or an independent will become president.

Historically speaking there have been five ways to become President:

Be a military general who wins a critical campaign that affects the very survival of the United States (aka Washington, Jackson, Grant, Eisenhower)
Be the Secretary of State.
Be a senator from a very large and critical state, especially from a "swing state" that might be critical to winning electorial votes.
Be a governor or former governor of a state.
Be the Vice-president of the United States.

Of these, being vice-president seems to have the most influence, but being governor is also quite useful. Notable governors of even smallish states like Bill Clinton (Arkansas) and Jimmy Carter (Georgia) have been able to get elected.

As for being a general, World War II was the last major war for this to have worked out in this way, although it certainly is a very good item on the resume for Colin Powell to have "won" the Gulf War in 1991, and it should be of note that no current general involved with the Iraq War is certainly commanding national attention or a likely candidate as President of the United States any time in the future.

While being senator certainly seems to be useful to getting the party nomination, there has not been a senator to become President of the United States since John F. Kennedy. Nor other than JFK anybody other than a governor or vice-president since Herbert Hoover (he was Secretary of Commerce as the highest office he held prior to being president).

Democratic Party

Announced Candidates

Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska
Senator Hillary Clinton of New York
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois
Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina

Likely potential candidates

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
Retired General Wesley Clark of Arkansas
Former Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota
Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia

Other potential candidates

Senator Barbara Boxer of California
Governor Phil Bredesen of Tennessee
Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont
Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
Governor Mike Easley of North Carolina
Former Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
Representative John Lewis of Georgia
Former Gov. Gary Locke of Washington
Governor Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Self-help guru Tony Robbins of California
Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Reverend Al Sharpton of New York

Republican Party

Announced Candidate

Congressman Ron Paul M.D. of Texas
John H. Cox of Illinois
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Senator John McCain of Arizona

Likely potential candidates

Senator George Allen of Virginia
Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia
Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska
Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
Governor George Pataki of New York
Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado

Other potential candidates

Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Former Ambassador Alan Keyes of Maryland
Former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court Roy Moore
Governor Bill Owens of Colorado
Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
Representative Mike Pence of Indiana
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice of California
Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina
Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin

Link

http://www.cox2008.com/