Mobility 2050/New Transit Modes

In 2050 there will be numerous changes to the transit industry to better serve the needs of its users and the environment. Potential solutions are adaptations to the train and commuter rail industry today; new technologies such as AV ride sharing, smart roads, and e-bikes; or strategic improvements of the transportation industry, such as using mobility as a service or demand-responsive transit.

In 2050 the commuter rails will improve by addressing problems like overcrowding, high pricing, and inefficient transit. Overcrowding will be addressed by removing seating in some cars and by capacity signaling. Cities like Seoul in Korea are already experimenting with removing the seating in up to two cars to free up 160 square feet of standing room. In 2050, this will have expanded to more countries allowing more people to use public transportation systems like commuter rail and stimulating health in riders by making them stand in-between busy work days. Capacity signaling uses technology to determine and display the capacity of a commuter rail unit to users so they can better disperse themselves within the trains. This can be accomplished using artificial intelligence (AI) with cameras or machine learning models with sensors on the bottom of trains. With the use of camera sensors we can determine the percent occupied of a train; and sensors can detect weight differences as users enter and exit the train. Once the capacity is determined, LED lights at the stations will show which carts are most full and which are the least using red/yellow/green signals to demonstrate high sosh techniques.

The high prices of public transportation systems seen since COVID in 2020 are now addressed by benefiting the most frequent users of commuter rails. Users who ride the metro more than 3 or 4 times a day on average for six days a week have a special metrocard with a reduced fare. If a user purchases a ticket at the station, they are subject to the changing fees based on the economic changes of the state. This encourages the use of public transit by reducing fair prices to its most loyal customers.

Inefficient transit will be addressed by using machine learning models to best optimize the number of cars operating on certain routes based on the capacity measurements mentioned above and frequency of high capacities around certain time frames. Addressing inefficient transit encourages the usage of public transportation as it will be seen as more reliable and efficient than using passenger cars, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

Another change we expect to see in the future is the widespread use of high-speed trains. Mag-lev and Hyper-loop trains are now being used across Europe and the United States to replace short air travel. The Mag-lev has proven to be efficient and successful in China and will pilot various versions of this until the Hyper-loop is developed. The Hyper-loop is an electric vehicle that travels in a vacuum at speeds 30% faster than a traditional 747 aircraft, allowing riders to travel from DC to New York in approximately 1 hour. Also, major hubs in the northeast, including Toronto and Montreal, will now be connected via high-speed train. With widespread use, the goal is that costs and fuel consumption will be less than airplanes. Using electric vehicles over planes will decrease the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the transportation industry.

Electric Bicycles, or E-Bikes, will also become more prevalent by 2050, and they will be increasingly available in public spaces. Electric bikes are an efficient, cost-effective, eco-friendly transit method that will be beneficial in both urban and rural environments. Between 2019 and 2021, annual electric bicycle sales were boosted by 240%, and in 2020, the sales of E-Bikes outnumbered those of electric vehicles by a ratio of around 2:1.  This growth suggests that E-Bikes will play a pivotal role in shaping the sustainable and accessible mobility future of 2050. E-Bike ride-sharing will also be integrated with new systems, which will continue to allow individuals to navigate in efficient and sustainable ways.

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) as well as driverless taxis will be seen and used on public roads by 2050.  Seeing as 35 U.S. states have introduced or are in the process of writing legislation regarding AV usage, public interest as well as research and development have propelled AVs into public usage.  There are a variety of issues that will have to be addressed in the next decades such as carbon emissions due to the computing power of the autonomous algorithms as well as the convenience of the rides prompting more car rides per day per person than currently with manual cars.  As the U.S. transitions to renewable energy, electric vehicles with high energy consumption will demand a stronger and more unified national electric grid.  Since the importance of personal liberties varies between countries, it would be unlikely to see a human driver ban in some countries, though a model of Berlin suggests that such a ban with the use of driverless taxis could reduce overall congestion and carbon emissions.  As recently as October of 2023 the California Department of Motor Vehicles has suspended Cruise, a major driverless taxi corporation based mainly in San Francisco, due to its cars’ performance being deemed unsafe for public operation.  Complaints from many citizens of cities with driverless taxi deployment such as in Austin, Phoenix, and San Francisco of the cars being a nuisance to other drivers to more extreme issues such as blocking emergency vehicles and killing pedestrians.  Despite similar issues being raised in a public hearing in San Francisco on increasing the deployment of driverless taxis, the commissioners still decided to allow it. All of these issues will likely slow the development of driverless taxis as a new mode of transit but will not inhibit it from becoming widespread by 2050.

Mobility as a Service (MaaS), which aims to integrate various modes of transportation into a single platform, will become increasingly prevalent and will serve as an efficient way to promote more sustainable transit, such as biking, walking, public transportation, and ride-sharing. Helsinki, Finland has already begun to do this with the app Whim, which integrates various transportation services in the area into a single service. MaaS platforms will use advanced algorithms and real-time data to optimize routes, reduce congestion, and provide users with efficient and more sustainable options for their transportation.  MaaS will become integral to developing sustainable urban cities by promoting shared mobility and reducing traffic emissions.

Demand-Response Transport (DRT) systems will also be used effectively in 2050, by analyzing data, such as through artificial intelligence, from various sources, like passenger requests, traffic conditions, and events, to optimize transit routes and minimize waiting times. DRT will allow transit services to dynamically adjust routes and schedules based on real-time user demand. This will be implemented for existing public transit systems, like bus routes, and will also be used in vanpool sharing, which will be useful in rural areas without extensive transit infrastructure. In 2023, many cities have begun to implement pilot programs implementing DRT, such as the “Metro Micro” van sharing program in Los Angeles, or London and Auckland’s integration of DRT for bus services. These trials will allow for better implementation and serve as a basis for creating robust DRT systems in 2050.

As many countries begin to prioritize green energy by 2050, transit will have to adapt to the challenges that will arise. In 2050, this could mean advancements in increased energy efficiency, more sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, and improved transit infrastructure like more charging stations and smarter city planning. Also, current emerging technologies will have to overcome current challenges, as well as adapt to evolving demands as we approach 2050 and integrate into our daily lives. It is very likely that innovative and unpredictable forms of transit will come into the market or that the market will surpass the transit that seems promising now in 2023.

By 2050, the predicted transit modes above will tackle current transit concerns, like traffic, high prices, unsustainable practices, and others to better support people and the environment. From improved and new transportation technologies, like enhanced commuter rail systems, high-speed trains, E-Bikes, and AVs, to new transit systems, like MaaS and DRT, the future of transit will allow for more substantial improvements in mobility, equity, and sustainability. Ongoing green energy efforts will continue to drive advancements in energy efficiency and more sustainable options, creating a better transit system for the future, and as we approach 2050, the integration of new technologies and advancements will bring a promising transit future.