Civil Aviation in Australia

About Civil Aviation

Background

Aviation is a fast while (relatively) affordable transport mode to carry passengers or cargo. It is characterised by its independence from terrains near the Earth surface. Passengers take flights onboard mechanical aircrafts which can “defy gravity” and fly in the air. Most air travels (aviation) can be categorised into military and civil (non-military) aviation depending on their operations and purposes. Civil aviation includes both scheduled air transport and general aviation (non-scheduled). While all scheduled air transport is classified as commercial, general aviation can be either commercial or private. Most airlines (scheduled services of air transportation between areas) obtain their profits, if any, by passenger carriers. Use of the fast but relatively expensive transport mode is best justified by highly valuable goods – and people are arguably the most valuable things to be carried.

Organisation

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) is a United Nations agency established in 1944 to manage the administration and governance of the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation. ICAO and the Convention’s 192 Member States work together to enforce Standards and Recommended Practices for international civil aviation.

In Australia, the first Commonwealth agency to manage civil aviation, the Civil Aviation Branch of the Department of Defence, was established in March 1921. It expanded and became the Department of Civil Aviation in November 1938. The Civil Aviation Authority, Australia’s first statutory authority with responsibility for civil aviation was established in July 1988. In July 1995, the Civil Aviation Authority was separated to form the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and Airservices Australia.

Advantages and Disadvantages

Table 1: Advantages and Disadvantages of Air Travel

Advantage	Disadvantage
Fast	Risky
No physical barrier	Unreliable services
Easy access	Limited capacity
Comfort	High operating cost (aircrafts)

Some of the most significant advantages and disadvantages of aviation are listed in Table 1.

Advantage

The most significant advantage of aviation is its high speed which shortens travel time from origins to destinations. Air travel makes long-distance travel much faster than other previous types of modes. Air transport is not subjected to ground or water conditions. This is a unique characteristic of air travel for it to become viable in most regions of the world which would not be easily accessed by other modes of transport. The construction of tracks or roads is not required, nor is the access to rivers or sea. The physical barrier to build an aviation system and to operate one is low. This also brings better user experience in terms of comfort. Air travels experience less turbulence than water transport and less vibration (of smaller amplitudes) than ground or underground transports.

Disadvantage

The disadvantages include safety concerns, limits of technology and high costs/prices. Since aircrafts are delicate mechanical and electronic products, a small error in its system can have catastrophic consequences. Due to the isolated environment in the air and magnitude of height and speed, air travel is physically more dangerous than other slower-moving transport modes. Though the physical barrier is lower than other transport modes, aviation is still subjected to weathers. The atmospheric conditions are critical in the operation of an aircraft. To ensure safety, air travels usually have a low tolerance for adverse weathers so that scheduled services can be frequently disrupted by delays. In addition, aircrafts have relatively limited capacity when compared with ships or railroads. This also contributes to higher prices of air travel when the demand-supply relationship is considered. Economies of scale are limited to a single aircraft due to limited capacity to carry passengers or other goods. Aircrafts are expensive due to their technological complexity. The capital investment, skill requirements to operate and manage, maintenance cost and software upgrade cost could be higher than other modes of transport.

History of Technology

Ancient Time

The inner desire of humans to fly first appeared in mythologies and legends. However, the early attempts usually ended in tragedies. The famous Greek legend of Daedalus and Icarus who escaped the Labyrinth on Crete with wings made of feathers and wax was one of them. The legend says that despite being warned by his father, the craftsman Daedalus who made the wings, Icarus flew too close to the sun. Hence, the wax on his wings melted and led to his fatal fall into the sea. The early attempts to fly by this time are known as “tower jumping” which is essentially leaping from high places with some crude crafts attached to their bodies.

Kite, Bamboo Dragonfly and Sky Lantern

Kites and “Bamboo Dragonfly” (or bamboo-copters) are the earliest forms of aircrafts, possibly invented in China as early as in the 5^th and 4^th century BC respectively. Like many other great inventions of China, they are most commonly used as toys though the principles can be applied to construct larger carriers. Legend claims that Han Xin, a general of the Han Dynasty around 200 BC, used large kites to carry people in the air to measure distances for a tunnel while in some stories the kites carried people for propaganda purposes (to terrorise the enemy).

The Chinese had also invented a form of hot air balloons called the sky lantern. The lantern cover is made of strong paper or silk inside which a small lantern is placed to provide the lift. In Chinese legends, the use of sky lantern is often attributed to Zhuge Liang around 200 AD who used sky lanterns in military combats to scare the enemy and set fire to enemy ships.

Hot Air Balloon and Airship (Lighter-than-air)

Although the idea of early human-powered ornithopter (an aircraft which flies by flapping the wings like a bird) designed by Leonardo Da Vinci and others during the Renaissance was disillusioned, humans started to realise the necessity of larger and more complex devices to overcome physical limitations of the human body to fly.

The first successful manned aviation happened in 1783 by a globe-shaped hot air balloon. The hot air balloon was produced by the Montgolfier Brothers, Joseph-Michel Montgolfier (1740 - 1810) and Jacques-Étienne Montgolfier (1745 – 1799) of France. The late 18^th century and early 19^th century were the burgeoning period of non-steerable hot air balloons. The hot air balloons were used in wars but more popular as recreational sports in Britain. The aviation industry then worked on the control (steerability), safety and efficiency of the power system (hydrogen gas, coal gas or helium gas) in the 19^th century. The first powered, controlled, sustained lighter-than-air airship was built by the French engineer Jules Henri Giffard. The first flight of the cigar-shaped team-powered happened on 24 September 1852, travelled about 17 miles at a speed of 6 miles per hour. Electric-powered airships were invented later in 1884.

Heavier-than-air

Sir George Cayley (1773 – 1857) is called the “Father of Aviation” for his work in identifying the four aerodynamic forces: weight, lift, drag and thrust. He worked on several types of flying machines including airships, gliders and helicopters. In 1799, Cayley recorded his simple but significant idea of the separation of propulsion and lifting systems on a silver disc (the Silver Disc). This formed his concept that the future heavier-than-air flights should use fixed-wing flying machines which is the prototype of modern aeroplanes. Cayley’s work extended and was directly applied to aircraft designs powered by steam engines. Although gliders which do not require an engine were better developed in the later 19^th century, propeller-driven aircraft attracted many mechanical and aeronautical engineers at that time to explore possibilities of longer-distance air transport.

The Wright Brothers are credited for the first powered, sustained and controlled flight with their heavier-than-air Wright flyer on 17 December 2017. Their success was a result of the superior understanding of the aerodynamics established from systematic modelling experiments. The Wright Brothers conducted more than 200 tests with their wing designs and found mistakes in the previous models of lift during their study of gliders. They built their own wind tunnel and corrected the aspect ratio of aircraft. In February 1908, they signed a contract with the U.S. Army to deliver a machine which can fly for one hour with a pilot and a passenger at an average speed of 40 miles per hour for $25,000. In 1909, they completed the contract and received a bonus of $5000 for exceeding the required speed. The Wright Company was then established in November of the same year.

The history of commercial flights can be dated back to 1909 when DELAG operated Zeppelin airships to provide flight services. Though it was not initially successful in arranging regular schedules, the experience contributed to the development of commercial airlines as a prototype.

Quantitative Analysis

The objective of the quantitative analysis is to use a three-parameter logistic function to predict the life cycle of the aviation industry in Australia. It is known from experience that a transport mode usually undergoes stages of birthing, growth and maturity before its decline. The logistic model simulates the first three phases of development and provides a graphical illustration. The function can be written as:

$S(t)={\frac {K}{1+e^{-b(t-t_{0})}}}\$

• $S$ is the status measure, i.e. the number of passengers in millions taking scheduled air travels.

• $t$ is the year in which the passengers take the flights.

• $K$ is the saturation status level i.e. the upper limit of the annual number of passengers in the aviation industry.

• $t_{0}$ is the inflection time i.e. the year when half of the maximum number of passengers ${\frac {1}{2}}K$ is reached.

• $b$ is an arbitrary coefficient to control the rate of increase of the function.

The equation can be transformed into the following form:

$e^{-b(t-t_{0})}={\frac {K}{S(t)}}-1$

$ln{({\frac {K-S(t)}{S(t)}})}=-bt-bt_{0}$

The parameter $K$ is trialled against the set of $S(t)$ and $t$ which are given by the data. The linear relationship is then analysed with Microsoft Excel Regression Analysis Tools to identify the most suitable $K$ and calculate the value of $t_{0}$ by dividing the y-intercept by $-b$.

Result

Based on the World Bank data on the number of passengers carried in the world and in Australia from 1970 to 2016, the current numbers of passengers carried are plotted in Figure 1 and 2 for World and Australian data respectively. Simple built-in trendline functions in Excel are also shown, one is a linear regression fit and another is exponential. The trend lines indicate sustained growth in the number of passengers for both World and Australian aviation. However, they are not as useful in forecasting and prediction because there are physical limits to the number of passengers carried, i.e. population growth and the number of aeroplanes, unlike the constant or accelerating increases demonstrated by the trend lines.

Figure 1: World Aviation, Passengers Carried

Figure 2: Australian Aviation, Passengers Carried

The plot of $S(t)$ against $t$ with actual and modelling statistics are shown in Figure 3 and 4 respectively for the world and Australia. Data are processed with curve-fitting procedures and regression analysis to increase the accuracy of the model. The results of the model are used to provide evaluations and to estimate the life cycle of civil aviation in Australia. Data are available on the World Bank website and the data used are at the end of this page. The world dataset is to test the validity of the logistic model and is set as a reference to develop a model for civil aviation in Australia.

Figure 3: World Aviation Projection

Figure 4: Australian Aviation Projection

Table 2 records the values of $K$, $b$, $t_{0}$ and the $R^{2}$ (R-squared) for the world and Australian aviation.

	$K$	$b$	$t_{0}$	$R^{2}$
World	16500	0.053917397	2040.954657	0.992391193
Australia	360	0.054608286	2040.952314	0.985462429

Evaluation

Both World and Australian aviation industries have shown similar trends in their development. With a high goodness of fit of the model ($R^{2}$ of 0.992 and 0.985 respectively), the inflection year is calculated to be around 2041. While the data indicates that aviation industry has not reached the inflection year i.e. the rate of growth in the number of passengers has not slowed down, it is uncertain when the growth would start to decelerate.

The model predicts large numbers of passengers taking air transport in the future (upper limits at 16.5 billion for the world and 360 million for Australia) which may not seem likely at the first glance. However, a news report by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) states that “The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion air travellers expected to fly this year [2017].” This claim is also supported by the logistic model which predicts about 7.1 billion passengers in 2036 and 7.8 billion in 2039. Since the majority of air transport growth occurs on the routes to, between or from the Asia-Pacific region, the aviation industry of Australia can be expected to expand as well.

According to the Airbus Global Market Forecast 2017-2036, domestic Australia/New Zealand has a rank of top 15^th passenger flows in 2036 with 1.8 times the flows in 2016. The multiplier returns a result of around 131 million passengers in 2036 which is lower than the logistic model result of 156 million. Since the main driver of Australian aviation market is growing tourism from China and China is predicted to have the largest number of passengers taking air transportation , the rise in total passenger trips by aviation may exceed expectation and validate the logistic model. However, it is important to acknowledge differences in world aviation and regional aviation development because the latter is susceptible to more regional constraints and influences from multilateral relationships. The growth of aviation industry may not be as fast if the country’s GDP growth or demographic growth fall below the world average.

Life Cycle

Birthing (1964 - 2009)

The first commercial flight took place on 2^nd November 1964 between Sydney and Melbourne. Although there were earlier flights as far back as in 1922 when an 84-year-old pioneer Alexander Kennedy became the first passenger of Queensland and Northern Territory Aerial Services (QANTAS) to fly from Charleville to Cloncurry, the domestic jet Essendon Airport in 1964 marked the first modern commercial airliner in Australia. Prior to the advent of passenger travels, the aviation industry was mostly funded by airmail services and private investors (who were interested in the technology or races). It was during this period that most of the safety policies were constructed.

• The International Convention Relating to Air Navigation (Paris Convention) was signed in October 1919. The convention entered into force in Australia on 1 June 1922.

• The Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) was signed in December 1944. The convention entered into force in Australia on 4 April 1947.

• Other domestic aviation laws and policies in compliance with international conventions. Examples include Air Navigation Act 1920, Civil Aviation (Carrier's Liability) Act 1959, the Civil Aviation Act 1988, the Civil Aviation Amendment Bill 1998, Aviation Transport Security Act 2004, etc. Refer to Aviation Policy & Regulation for more details.

The policies and regulations of this period focus on the establishment of management systems, clarification of responsibilities and safety measures. Many practices use experiences from previous modes in regards to ticketing, cross-border operations and scheduled services.

Growth (2010 - present)

Since 2010, the number of passengers has exceeded 15% of the saturation status level (15^th percentile). The growth becomes stable and is powered by Australia’s GDP growth. Since Australia has one of the highest propensity to fly, the growth can be expected to be sustained with Australia’s population growth.

The major policy which has come into force is Air Navigation Regulation 2016 which modifies and augments the Air Navigation Act 1920 to accommodate the modern development of technologies, licensing and international economic instruments. The focus of policies in the growth phase has mainly concentrated on training, licensing, international operations and sustainable economic (and environmental) growth of the industry. Deregulation of air services continues to raise market performance and quality of services.

Maturity

The quantitative analysis suggests that civil aviation industry in Australia is still in its growth and has not yet reached the inflection year (when around 50% of the saturation status is achieved). The model suggests civil aviation in Australia would reach maturity after 2070. Any policy changes and market activities would only be marginal then and development in other transport technologies is anticipated.

the World Bank Data and Predicted Data

Actual and Predicted Passenger Data Used in Figure 1, 2, 3 & 4

Year	Number of Passengers (million)		Number of Predicted Passengers (million)
	World	Australia	World	Australia
1970	310.441392	7.3187	352.0792	7.3226
1971	331.604904	7.3266	371.1448	7.7248
1972		7.7956		8.1486
1973	401.5718	9.3846	412.3486	8.5950
1974	421.1452	10.6647	434.5900	9.0653
1975	432.2765	11.0551	457.9969	9.5605
1976	471.773396	10.8643	482.6266	10.0821
1977	513.269292	11.3065	508.5388	10.6313
1978	576.090004	12.1223	535.7958	11.2094
1979	648.4006	13.0225	564.4621	11.8179
1980	641.872888	13.6488	594.6049	12.4583
1981	640.6194	13.2195	626.2942	13.1320
1982	654.482108	13.1879	659.6023	13.8407
1983	685.101596	12.6015	694.6044	14.5861
1984	732.410288	13.2368	731.3780	15.3698
1985	783.198104	14.4121	770.0037	16.1936
1986	842.594296	15.4973	810.5644	17.0595
1987	904.838104	16.8802	853.1459	17.9692
1988	953.896012	18.8163	897.8362	18.9247
1989	983.2088	15.1143	944.7262	19.9281
1990	1024.976616	17.5534	993.9091	20.9814
1991	1133.228204	21.8601	1045.4803	22.0868
1992	1145.436692	23.8866	1099.5378	23.2464
1993	1142.265216	26.9293	1156.1811	24.4625
1994	1233.233404	26.8885	1215.5122	25.7373
1995	1302.89164	28.8314	1277.6345	27.0732
1996	1390.963704	30.0751	1342.6527	28.4726
1997	1455.104192	30.9535	1410.6731	29.9378
1998	1466.96178	30.1857	1481.8026	31.4712
1999	1562.2563	31.5797	1556.1488	33.0753
2000	1674.064712	32.577569	1633.8193	34.7525
2001	1655.230214	33.477398	1714.9216	36.5052
2002	1627.404873	39.021581	1799.5625	38.3360
2003	1665.309283	41.386432	1887.8474	40.2471
2004	1888.695284	41.596552	1979.8802	42.2410
2005	1969.590799	44.657324	2075.7623	44.3200
2006	2072.413898	46.951775	2175.5920	46.4863
2007	2209.136496	48.728837	2279.4642	48.7421
2008	2208.218737	51.488427	2387.4690	51.0896
2009	2249.728546	50.026967	2499.6918	53.5308
2010	2628.261258	60.640913	2616.2116	56.0673
2011	2786.95383	63.36031034	2737.1011	58.7011
2012	2894.054972	66.355274	2862.4249	61.4336
2013	3048.275073	68.197955	2992.2394	64.2661
2014	3227.291386	68.12323767	3126.5913	67.1998
2015	3463.849192	69.77934548	3265.5174	70.2357
2016	3696.181786	72.59770081	3409.0428	73.3743
			3557.1810	76.6161
			3709.9321	79.9612
			3867.2827	83.4093
			4029.2046	86.9600
			4195.6545	90.6123
			4366.5729	94.3650
			4541.8838	98.2164
			4721.4943	102.1646
			4905.2940	106.2070
			5093.1549	110.3410
			5284.9309	114.5633
			5480.4587	118.8702
			5679.5570	123.2577
			5882.0274	127.7213
			6087.6549	132.2563
			6296.2083	136.8575
			6507.4411	141.5192
			6721.0927	146.2357
			6936.8893	151.0008
			7154.5454	155.8079
			7373.7650	160.6504
			7594.2432	165.5215
			7815.6681	170.4140
			8037.7223	175.3207
			8260.0847	180.2344
			8482.4324	185.1477
			8704.4427	190.0534
			8925.7948	194.9441
			9146.1717	199.8127
			9365.2619	204.6522
			9582.7614	209.4556
			9798.3751	214.2163
			10011.8185	218.9278
			10222.8188	223.5840
			10431.1168	228.1791
			10636.4673	232.7075
			10838.6406	237.1641
			11037.4230	241.5441
			11232.6177	245.8431