Transportation Deployment Casebook/2019/Sydney Trains

Overview

This Wikibook page provides a Qualitative and Quantitative assessment of Sydney Trains. It also incorporates the life-cycle analysis of Sydney Trains during its birthing, growth and development, maturity and the regeneration of growth phases. Eventually, a three-parameter logistic function and the S-Curve model provides a prediction based on the annual number of passenger journeys made on the Sydney Trains network.

Qualitative

Characteristics

Sydney Trains is a suburban passenger rail network that covers over 815 km of rail track and 178 stations serving the city of Sydney, Australia since 1855. It operates over 22,200 services a week carrying approximately 1.3 million customers and has till date served more than 23 billion passengers over its lifetime. Currently, Sydney Trains is controlled and operated by Transport for NSW.

Advantages

• Economic benefits - Currently, Sydney Trains provides a major economic contribution of about $26 billion per year which represents about 1.6% of the Australian economy. It is also one of the most energy efficient mode of transport given that a train line can move 50,000 people per hour in comparison to a freeway lane which can only move 2500 people per hour. In fact, greenhouse emissions per passenger kilometre are up to five times less than that of automobiles. There is also a direct correlation between refined access to Sydney Trains network and increase in property values. This in turn helps the government to collect more duties when properties are bought or sold in turn increasing their tax revenue.
• Social benefits - Sydney Trains plays a significant role in social inclusion. By improving the access to its network it enables individuals who are low-income earners, elderly and the unemployed who are at the risk of social isolation to interact socially. This in turn contributes to the overall fabric of the society. Another social benefit it provides is equality of access to employment and services.

Main Markets

The main market of Sydney Trains consists of the people around the metropolitan Sydney area. Currently, Sydney has a population of about 5.5 million, but in the coming years it is projected to reach 6 million by 2027 and 7 million by 2037 which is the current population in London. Sydney Trains plans to accommodate for this population growth while at the same time providing reliable and efficient train services.  

Alternative Modes

• Water transport - Between 1788 and 1888, people covered more distance on sea than on land. This coupled with the growing demand of moving food and people towards Port Jackson lead to the creation of the local water transport industry. By late 1789, the first sailing vessel (Rose Hill Packet) was built to carry passengers and stores along the parramatta river between Sydney Cove and the Rose Hill (currently Parramatta). Almost immediately, this vessel was joined by new boats that provided regular row and sail ferry services on the Parramatta river between 1789 and 1833. In the early 1790s, the colonists envisioned the incentive to build larger vessels as they discovered the opportunity of capturing bay whales near the islands of Bass Strait for trading purposes. This whole new industry of bay whales attracted foreign fleets to Hobart Town which became a crucial port for the foreigners who captured the whales in the southern oceans. Consequently, the foreigners brought along an expertise in boat making which provided the local shipwrights with the skills to create larger vessels. It is reported that between 1812 and 1825 there were 445 vessels built near the Tasmanian yards that transported good to New South Wales. Gradually, the size of the vessel developed such that it was able to reach various islands as further as New Zealand. With the introduction of new technology between 1821 and 1837 - steamships including Sophia Jane, William the Fourth and James Watt were introduced in the Australian waters. By 1890s, steamships began venturing the international waters for goods trade. The limitations of the water transport was such that there was abundant number of small crafts and vessels in the waters which forced the colonists to think about diverting the traffic of goods transportation to other modes of transport.
• Land Transport - Unlike water transport, land transport was inferior and entirely new. However, the difficulties of terrain were mastered by colonists and development was rapid regarding the methods of road construction. The roads of the colonies were mostly used by convicts who were used as draught animals to carry goods and haul carts for their employers. It took a long time for colonists to import more resources from overseas as they were content with the convicts driven haul carts. However, the introduction of bullock wagons in 1800 and box wagons in 1860 provided an alternative to using convicts for goods transportation. This had its limitations though, such as the difficulty to manage these wagons on rough roads as they lacked brakes. Donkeys and camels were also extensively used in wagons in the 19th century. The introduction of rail in 1855 then began to become the main mode of transportation of goods and people.

Quantitative

The tabulated data below shows the annual patronage of passenger's travelling in the Sydney trains network over its 162-year lifespan (i.e.from 1855 to 2017). It is to be noted that until 1959-1960 the data is based on 5 yearly intervals with the intermediate years interpolated. All data from the year 1960 on wards is reported yearly and the data points are official figures.

RAW DATA

Year	Annual Passenger Journeys (Millions)	Predicted Annual Passenger Journeys (Millions)
1855	0	4.2
1856	0	4.3
1857	0	4.5
1858	0	4.7
1859	0	4.9
1860	0	5.1
1861	0	5.3
1862	0	5.5
1863	0	5.7
1864	0	5.9
1865	0	6.1
1866	0	6.4
1867	0	6.6
1868	0	6.9
1869	0	7.2
1870	0	7.5
1871	1	7.8
1872	1	8.1
1873	2	8.4
1874	2	8.7
1875	3	9.1
1876	3.3	9.4
1877	3.7	9.8
1878	4.1	10.2
1879	4.5	10.6
1880	5	11.0
1881	5.3	11.5
1882	5.7	11.9
1883	6.1	12.4
1884	6.5	12.9
1885	7	13.4
1886	7.4	13.9
1887	7.7	14.4
1888	8.1	15.0
1889	8.6	15.6
1890	9	16.2
1891	9.5	16.8
1892	10.1	17.5
1893	10.7	18.2
1894	11.3	18.9
1895	12	19.6
1896	13	20.3
1897	14.1	21.1
1898	15.3	21.9
1899	16.6	22.8
1900	18	23.7
1901	19.9	24.6
1902	22.1	25.5
1903	24.5	26.5
1904	27.1	27.5
1905	30	28.5
1906	32.2	29.6
1907	34.6	30.7
1908	37.2	31.9
1909	40	33.1
1910	43	34.3
1911	48.3	35.6
1912	54.3	36.9
1913	61	38.3
1914	68.3	39.7
1915	77	41.1
1916	81.6	42.6
1917	86.5	44.2
1918	91.7	45.8
1919	97.2	47.5
1920	103	49.2
1921	105.8	50.9
1922	108.8	52.8
1923	111.8	54.6
1924	114.8	56.6
1925	118	58.6
1926	121.4	60.6
1927	124.9	62.7
1928	128.5	64.9
1929	132.2	67.1
1930	136	69.4
1931	138.7	71.8
1932	141.4	74.2
1933	144.2	76.7
1934	147.1	79.2
1935	150	81.9
1936	153.8	84.6
1937	157.7	87.3
1938	161.7	90.1
1939	165.8	93.0
1940	170	96.0
1941	180.4	99.0
1942	191.5	102.1
1943	203.3	105.3
1944	215.8	108.5
1945	229	111.8
1946	232.1	115.2
1947	235.3	118.6
1948	238.5	122.1
1949	241.7	125.7
1950	245	129.3
1951	249.1	133.0
1952	253.2	136.7
1953	257.4	140.5
1954	261.7	144.4
1955	266	148.3
1956	263.5	152.3
1957	260.9	156.3
1958	258.4	160.4
1959	256	164.5
1960	252.5	168.6
1961	252.7	172.8
1962	257.8	177.1
1963	263.8	181.4
1964	261.7	185.7
1965	257.6	190.0
1966	255.3	194.4
1967	253.3	198.8
1968	248.5	203.2
1969	252.6	207.6
1970	254.8	212.0
1971	230.7	216.5
1972	201.2	221.0
1973	198.5	225.4
1974	190.9	229.9
1975	179.5	234.3
1976	181.1	238.8
1977	180	243.2
1978	179	247.6
1979	204.9	252.1
1980	207.8	256.4
1981	216	260.8
1982	202.9	265.1
1983	198.9	269.4
1984	197	273.7
1985	214.9	277.9
1986	220.6	282.1
1987	242.6	286.3
1988	246.1	290.4
1989	248.4	294.5
1990	251.6	298.5
1991	243.8	302.4
1992	229.8	306.3
1993	234.8	310.2
1994	249.6	314.0
1995	256.4	317.7
1996	264.7	321.4
1997	266.5	325.0
1998	270.5	328.5
1999	278.7	332.0
2000	293.1	335.4
2001	267.1	338.8
2002	263.7	342.1
2003	263.6	345.3
2004	259.9	348.5
2005	261.9	351.5
2006	269	354.6
2007	283.3	357.5
2008	292.2	360.4
2009	289.1	363.2
2010	294.5	365.9
2011	303.5	368.6
2012	306.2	371.2
2013	315.1	373.8
2014	326.5	376.3
2015	361.1	378.7
2016	385.9	381.0
2017	405.9	383.3

Methodology

The data shown in the table above is then used to estimate the three-parameter logistic function that is given as:

$S(t)={\operatorname {K} \! \over \operatorname {1+\exp[-b(t-t{0})]} \!}$

Where:

• S(t) = Predicted annual passenger journeys (millions)
• K = Saturation level (millions)
• b = coefficient
• t = time (year)
• t₀ = Inflection time (year)

To estimate parameters K, b and t₀, a linear regression model with the following equations are used as shown:

• $Y=bX+C$
• $Y=LN{Annualpassengerjourneys \over K-Annualpassengerjourneys}$

Using excel, the parameters were estimated and are summarized below:

Summary of parameter values

Variables	Values
K	450
b	0.0397
R2	0.8273
t0	1972.91

S Curve

The S curve predicts that the number of passenger journeys will reach 450 million by the year 2100. The S curve also helps affix the dates of the various phases encountered in the life span of Sydney trains. These are summarised in the table below. Sydney trains has the second most expensive ticketing system after London and this coupled with the introduction of future projects such as the Sydney Metro Northwest, Sydney Metro CBD & Southwest and the planning of Parramatta link suggests that these will ease the congestion of passenger journeys on Sydney trains and effectively reduce it. While the S curve provides a good fit of the current trend there is a possibility that the introduction of a new technology coupled with future changes in regulations (keeping in mind that elections are around the corner) would significantly impact the number of passenger journeys over the years. While the S curve provides a good prediction of the annual number of passenger journeys in the short term, it does not account for policy changes and technological innovations in its future prediction and hence it does not provide a good approximation for the future predictions.

Life-cycle of Sydney trains using S curve

Phase	Year
Birthing	1855
Growth	1945
Maturity	1972
Regeneration of growth	1987+