Transportation Deployment Casebook/2025/Chinese SAF
Quantitative Analysis: Chinese and USA SAF consumption data
[edit | edit source]Data Overview,Collection
[edit | edit source]China, as the world's second-largest civil aviation market, is projected to exceed 5,000 operational commercial aircraft with annual aviation fuel consumption surpassing 50 million tons by 2030. Sinopec initiated sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research and development in 2009, followed by multiple demonstration production projects. CNPC conducted its first bio-jet fuel verification flight in 2011 and developed bio-jet fuel process packages during both the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plan periods. Currently, six Chinese enterprises have operational SAF production facilities, all employing Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology. Three manufacturers – Sinopec Zhenhai Refinery, Henan Junheng Biotechnology, and Shandong Highneng Technology – have obtained airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, achieving a combined annual SAF production capacity of 350,000 tons. However, due to high production costs, China only commenced mandatory SAF blending in September 2024 for 12 designated flights operated by Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern Airlines departing from Beijing Daxing, Chengdu Shuangliu, Zhengzhou Xinzheng, and Ningbo Lishe airports. Notably, no annual SAF consumption data have been released since the September 2024 implementation, whereas the United States – possessing a comparable aviation market scale – has disclosed complete SAF consumption statistics from 2016 to 2023. In this part , a three-parameter logistic growth model is employed to estimate the technology lifecycle progression of SAF adoption in the U.S. market.
| Year | Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Estimated Consumption In USA
(Million Gallons) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.9 |
| 2017 | 1.7 |
| 2018 | 1.8 |
| 2019 | 2.4 |
| 2020 | 4.6 |
| 2021 | 5.1 |
| 2022 | 15.8 |
| 2023 | 26.3 |
Methodology
[edit | edit source]The Logistic Formula:
S(t) = Predicted total consumption of SAF in US
S(max)=Saturation SAF somsuption level
b = Growth rate coefficient
t = Year
t0 = Inflection year(50% to S(max) )