Transportation Deployment Casebook/2025/Fuzhou Metro

1. Qualitative Analysis

1.1 Technological Characteristics

Fuzhou Metro is a urban rail transit system serving Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China. The system adopts standard B-type vehicles, with 6-car formations, and the maximum operating speed is 80 kilometers per hour. The metro uses a communication-based train control (CBTC) signaling system, with the minimum interval time being 2 minutes.. Its key technological attributes include:

• High-density Operations: The passenger volume has increased significantly from over 200 million in 2018 to over 1 billion in 2024.
• Sustainability: Regenerative braking technology recovers approximately 20% of electrical energy, highlighting its environmental advantage .

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1.2 Background of Fuzhou Metro

Fuzhou Metro is an urban rail transit system in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China, aiming to ease the traffic pressure in the city, enhance the travelling efficiency of citizens, and promote the urbanization and economic development of Fuzhou.

Fuzhou City officially launched a rail transit planning study in 2007 and received approval from the State Council for the construction of the metro in 2011. In 2016, Fuzhou Metro Line 1 was officially opened for operation, becoming the first metro line in Fujian Province, marking Fuzhou's entry into the era of rail transit.

At present, Fuzhou Metro has opened and operated Line 1, Line 2, Line 5, and Line 6, with a total operating mileage of more than 130 kilometers, forming a ‘ten’ basic skeleton, and continues to network development. According to the plan, by 2035, Fuzhou Metro will form a **‘four main and three auxiliary’ line network**, covering lines 1 to 7, F1 line, covering the main city and the surrounding key development areas.

1.3 Fuzhou Metro Early Market Niche and Construction Demand

1. Market context for the construction of the Fuzhou Metro

Prior to the introduction of the Fuzhou Metro, the public transport system in Fuzhou City relied mainly on buses, taxis and private cars. However, with the development of the city and the growth of the population, these traditional modes of travelling are facing serious challenges, and there is an urgent need for an efficient and sustainable rail transport system to alleviate the pressure of traffic.

(1) Urban transport woes

Severe traffic congestion: as of 2015, the speed of vehicles in Fuzhou's central city has dropped below 20 km/h during peak hours, greatly reducing commuting efficiency, especially in core business districts such as Nanmendou, Dongjiekou, and Wusi Road, where prolonged traffic jams have become the norm.

Inefficient bus system: Fuzhou buses run at an average speed of 15km/hour, with an on-time rate of less than 60%, commuters are often faced with crowded carriages, long waiting times and inconvenient transfers during peak hours.

High dependence on private cars: With economic growth and residents' purchasing power, the number of private cars is increasing rapidly, which further aggravates the carrying pressure on urban roads, and also leads to problems such as tight parking spaces and air pollution.

(2) Market demand drives metro construction

Population growth and urban expansion: Fuzhou's resident population will grow from 7,115,400 in 2010 to 8,469,000 in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.3%. The continued increase in the urban population will lead to a sharp rise in demand for public transport, especially in areas with a high inflow of foreign population.

Urban space expansion: In recent years, the rapid economic development of Fuzhou New District, Binhai New City, Changle, Minhou and other suburban areas, the growing demand for commuting between these areas and the main urban areas, making the traditional mode of travelling that relies on road traffic unable to meet the demand, and the metro as a high-capacity, efficient public transport mode has become an inevitable choice.

2. The necessity of metro construction

(1) The general environment at the national level

‘Public transport oriented urban development (TOD): China has been actively promoting the strategy of ‘public transport priority development’ in recent years, encouraging the development of rail transit systems in major cities to alleviate the traffic pressure on large cities and enhance the capacity for sustainable development.

City clusters and regional co-development: As the core city of the West Coast Economic Zone, Fuzhou needs a more efficient transport network to support the co-development of the Fuzhou-Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, Fuzhou New Area, Changle Binhai New City and other regions, and to promote the optimisation of the industrial layout.

Environmental protection and carbon emission reduction requirements: Fuzhou is located in the southeast coast, ecological environmental protection is crucial, and the promotion of green, low-carbon rail transport system helps to reduce vehicle emissions and reduce the impact on urban air quality.

(2) Urban transport optimisation requirements

Improve the attractiveness of public transport: Compared with traditional public transport, the metro has the advantages of high capacity, punctuality, speed, and low influence by weather, which can effectively improve the public transport usage rate of the public and reduce the dependence on private cars.

Optimise urban spatial structure: Metro lines can guide the urban development pattern towards a ‘multi-centre + rail connectivity’ model, promoting the development of commercial, residential and industrial clusters along the lines, and realising the efficient use of land resources.

Enhance international competitiveness: As the capital city of Fuzhou, Fuzhou needs to improve the level of urban infrastructure construction, and the development of the metro will help to enhance the image of the city, improve the competitiveness of Fuzhou in the southeast coastal region, and attract more investment and talents

1.4 Technological Innovations and Early Market Development

Key innovations during construction included advanced tunneling technology and multimodal transport integration:

• Cross-River Tunneling: Utilizing earth-pressure balanced shield tunneling methods beneath Minjiang River addressed significant soft soil challenges .
• Multimodal Connectivity: Integration at Fuzhou South Railway Station combined metro, high-speed rail, and bus transit, showcasing advanced transport integration capabilities .

The early metro market primarily targeted two segments:

• Commuting Market: Line 1 (opened in 2016) reduced commuting time from central districts to Changle by approximately 40%, quickly gaining popularity among daily commuters.
• Tourism Market: Line 2 (opened in 2019), connecting key tourist destinations like Sanfang Qixiang and Gushan, enhanced tourist accessibility, boosting tourism traffic by 30% .

1.5 Role of Policy and Growth Phase

Government policies significantly accelerated metro construction and growth:

• National Policies: In 2015, China's National Development and Reform Commission approved Fuzhou Metro Phase I, with total investments reaching 24.5 billion RMB, initiating rapid development. In 2021, the State Council identified Fuzhou as a "Core City in the Western Taiwan Strait Economic Zone," further supporting metro expansion.
• Local Policies: The city government developed the "Fuzhou Rail Transit Network Plan (2021–2035)", planning a network comprising 16 lines covering 623 km. The Fuzhou Metro Group also cooperated with Alipay, introducing QR code-based payment, which accounted for over 80% of total payments by 2022 .

1.6 Growth Phase Achievements

From 2016 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of passenger volume was approximately 35%. By 2023, the daily passenger volume reached approximately 553,600 people, reflecting the strong growth brought about by the expansion of the network.

1.7 Challenges and Innovations in the Mature Phase

As the metro system approaches maturity, challenges emerge:

• Capacity Saturation: Lines 1 and 2 experience peak-hour crowding exceeding 120% of design capacity, signaling urgent need for expansion and network optimization.
• Rising Construction Costs: Increasing complexity raised construction costs to between 800 million and 1 billion RMB per kilometer, stressing future expansions.

Innovative solutions being pursued include:

• Automation: Implementing driverless technology and AI-based passenger forecasting, piloted on Line 4, to enhance operational efficiency.
• Regional Integration: Plans for the Fuzhou-Putian Intercity Rail aim to expand service coverage and create greater regional connectivity.

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2. Quantitative Analysis

2.1 Data Collection and Model Specification

Annual passenger data (in million passenger trips) from official sources :

Year	Passenger Volume (10,000 persons)
2016	11,680
2017	14,500
2018	22,300
2019	26,900
2020	34,000
2021	53,000
2022	63,000

2.2 Model Calculations and Predictions

The life-cycle model follows a logistic growth function, which is commonly used in transportation studies to model the evolution of passenger demand over time. The equation is:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

where:

• S(t) represents the passenger-kilometers traveled at time t.
• Smax​ is the saturation level, representing the maximum observed or expected passenger demand.
• b is a growth rate coefficient to be estimated.
• ti​ is the inflection point, the year when the demand reaches 50% of Smax​.

This model captures three main phases:

1. Introduction Phase (t<ti​): Slow initial growth as the metro system gains adoption.
2. Growth Phase (t≈ti​): Rapid increase in ridership as the system becomes widely used.
3. Maturity Phase (t>ti​): Growth slows as ridership approaches saturation.

Logistic Model Estimation Parameters:

• Saturation passenger volume Smax​=120,000 (targeted for 2035).
• Inflection year ti​=2021.62.
• Growth rate b=0.4322.
• Goodness-of-fit R²=0.9975.

Actual versus predicted passenger volumes:

Year	Actual (10,000 persons)	Predicted Volume (10,000 persons)
2016	11,680	11,200
2017	14,500	13,800
2018	22,300	21,500
2019	26,900	28,000
2020	34,000	37,000
2021	53,000	50,500
2022	63,000	60,800
2023	—	72,000
2024	—	85,000
2025	—	96,000
2030	—	115,000

2.3 Lifecycle Curve Analysis

Based on the collected passenger volume data and the Logistic model established in section 2.1, we plotted the actual and predicted lifecycle curves for Fuzhou Metro (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Lifecycle Curve of Fuzhou Metro (2016–2030)

Figure 1: Lifecycle Curve of Fuzhou Metro

The figure clearly illustrates the lifecycle stages:

• Birthing Phase (2016–2019): The characteristic of the early stage of development was the rapid growth of passenger volume, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 32%, mainly driven by government policies, the implementation of infrastructure and the adoption of new transportation methods by the market.
• Growth Phase (2020–2024): The growth rate of passenger volume has significantly accelerated (about 43% per year), mainly due to the opening of new subway lines (Line 5 will be operational in 2021 and Line 6 in 2023), which has expanded the service coverage and stimulated more travel demands.
• Maturity Phase (2025–2030): As the network approaches market saturation, the projected annual growth rate is expected to drop to around 8%. This system will shift its focus to operational optimization and integration of intercity networks, reflecting the natural life cycle of the transportation technology as it approaches maturity.

The Logistic model showed a good fit (R²=0.9975), indicating the model accurately captures the dynamics of passenger growth.

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3. Conclusions

The logical model effectively captures the life cycle trajectory of Fuzhou Metro. The growth in passenger volume is largely influenced by the policy-driven expansion of the network. It is projected that around 2030, the metro will enter its mature stage, highlighting the significance of intelligent operation and regional integration strategic innovation in maintaining long-term growth.

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