Transportation Deployment Casebook/2025/Kyushu Shinkansen in Japan

Qualitative Analysis

Technology:

The Kyushu Shinkansen (九州新幹線, Kyūshū Shinkansen) is a Japanese Shinkansen high-speed railway network. It is an extension of the San'yō Shinkansen from Honshu connecting the city of Fukuoka (Hakata Station) in the north of Japan's Kyushu Island to the city of Kagoshima (Kagoshima-Chuo Station) in the south. The line runs parallel to the existing Kagoshima Main Line and is operated by Kyushu Railway Company (JR Kyushu)

Kyushu Shinkansen Trains

Services not leaving the Kyushu Shinkansen are operated by 6-car 800 Series trains, with a maximum speed of 260 km/h (160 mph). The trains were developed by Hitachi, and based on the 700 series trains already in service on the Tokaido/Sanyo Shinkansen line.

8-car N700-7000 and N700-8000 series trains are used on through-running services between Shin-Osaka and Kagoshima-Chūō.

Three services operate on the line, in order of speed: Mizuho, Sakura, and Tsubame. The Mizuho makes two return trips between Shin-Osaka and Kagoshima-Chūō during the morning hours, and two return trips during the evening, with an end-to-end journey time of 3 hours 45 minutes. Sakura services run once per hour throughout the day between Shin-Osaka and Kagoshima-Chūō making additional stops, with an end-to-end travel time of 4 hours 10 minutes. There are also one to two Sakura services every hour between Hakata and either Kumamoto or Kagoshima-Chūō. Tsubame trains operate the all-stations shuttle service between Hakata and Kumamoto once to twice per hour, with some services operating to/from Kagoshima-Chūō.

Context:

Based on the 1970 the National Shinkansen Network Law, the Kagoshima route was agreed in the development plan for 1973. Work started on the super-express line between Yatsushiro (later changed to Shin-Yatsushiro) and Nishi-Kagoshima (currently Kagoshima-Chuo) in September 1991, while construction of the line between Funagoya and Shin-Yatsushiro started in March 1998. In April 2001, permission was granted to add a line between Hakata and Funagoya as well as to change all lines to full shinkansen specifications with construction on the Kagoshima route kicking off with the start of work on the Hakata to Funagoya section in June 2001.

Before the opening of the Kyushu Shinkansen, passengers often chose limited express trains or sleeper trains for long-distance travel. Due to the narrow gauge, train speed is limited and shaking always happens during operation.

Invention:

The first section was the Shin-Yatsushiro to Kagoshima-Chuo section opened on 13 March 2004, massively slashing the fastest travel time between Hakata and Kagoshima-Chuo from 3 hours 40 minutes to 2 hours 12 minutes. The train service running on this section is the Tsubame, a name synonymous with modern shinkansen as well as a historic limited express from the past.

Market Development:

Kyusyu Shinkansen extends approx. 256.8km from Hakata through Kumamoto to Kagoshima in southern Kyusyu. The southern part of the line (Shin-Yatsushiro –Kagoshima-Chuo) was constructed and opened first in March 2004. As a result of the partial opening of the southern part, Kyusyu Shinkansen was not connected to existing Shinkansen network at the time. Studies from Imai et al. and Takatsu et al. indicate that larger effects or impacts on passengers and local social economy would be expected by completion of the line and connecting with existing Shinkansen network.

Kyusyu Shinkansen (Hakata – Shin-Yatsushiro) is 130km line linking Hakata station (Fukuoka City) and Shin-Yatsushiro station (Yatsushiro City). This section was completed in March 2011, six years after the completion of the southern part. There are new intermediate stations in Tosu City, Kurume City, Chikugo City, Omuta City, Tamana City, and Kumamoto City. Operation on the entire line made it possible to travel directly from Shin-Osaka to Kagoshima-Chuo.

After the whole line of Kyushu Shinkansen opening, travel time from most municipalities along the line to Hakata has been shortened dramatically. Thanks to opening, it has been possible to access from Kagoshima to Hakata within 1.5 hours. The resident population in the 2.5 hour areas has increased to about 4.46 million from 3.86 million. Moreover, that time from south area in Kyusyu to Osaka has been shortened. The resident population within 4.0 hours areas has been increased to about 3.8 million from 1.7 million.

The Role of Policy:

In 1970, The National Shinkansen Railway Preparation Law is promulgated. All lines opened after this are Seibi Shinkansen lines. The max speed is limited to 260km/h.

Due to the huge cost of building and operating the Shinkansen, and the fact that most passengers will be transferred from existing lines to the Shinkansen after the Shinkansen is opened, in order to reduce JR's operating burden and take into account the needs of residents along the existing lines and freight trains, the existing lines that run parallel to the Shinkansen will, in principle, be separated from the JR Group and taken over by a third-party railway company jointly established by local governments and enterprises.

Growth：

As mentioned in Market Development part, in March 2011. The whole Kyushu Shinkansen line opened. People in south Kyushu could take high speed trains in stead of local trains. What's more, according to the law, part of the Kagoshima Line (Yatsushiro-Sendai, Kagoshima) was taken over by a third-party railway company—Hisatsu Orenji Tetsudō Kabushiki gaisha. As a result, no through-service trains ran between Hakata station and Kagoshima City. What's more, some of the limited express trains no longer operated. As a result, passengers had no choice but to take Shinkansen trains.

Kyushu Shinkansen Route

Maturity:

Kyushu Shinkansen (operates by JR-Kyushu), together with San-yō Shinkansen (JR-West) and Tokkaido Shinkansen (JR-Central) have a through-train service system. Passengers can take a train from Kagoshima-Chuo to Shin-Osaka without transfer. Also, passengers can use the same ticket system and same special needs reservation system. So, it's very convenient to travel by high-speed trains.

Quantitative Analysis

To predict passenger travels on the Kyushu Shinkanse since 2007, a three-parameter logistic function was applied, which models growth saturation over time:

S(t)=S_max/ (1+e^(-b(t-t_i)))

where:

S(t) represents the number of passenger travels in thousands.

t is the time in years.

t_i is the inflection point, the year in which half of the maximum number of passengers is reached.

S_max is the saturation status level, which represents the maximum projected number of travels.

b is a coefficient determining the rate of change.

To improve the accuracy of the model, the data of years 2020 and 2021(severely influenced by COVID) is ignored. The actual passenger travels data is from e-Stat, a portal site for Japanese Government Statistics.

The actual passengers data in 2020 and 2021 is as follows:

Year	Actual Passengers (k)
2020	7072
2021	7977

Other data：

Year	Actual Passengers (k)	Predicted Passengers (k)
2007	4184	2000.167
2008	4162	3365.311
2009	3843	5262.457
2010	4462	7493.881
2011*	12143	9656.713
2012	12299	11393.624
2013	12786	12589.714
2014	13103	13328.797
2015	13648	13755.325
2016	13271	13991.825
2017	14168	14120.057
2018	14488	14188.742
2019	13994	14225.293
2022	12384	14260.358
2023	16089	14263.225

*In 2011, the north part of Kyushu Shinkansen line opened.

The graph below shows the comparison between the actual passenger travels and the predicted passenger travels.

Actual and Predicted Passengers of Kyushu Shinkansen

The following parameters were obtained:

S_max: 14266.4

t_i : 2010

b: 0.6383

R²: 0.8839 (a high degree of accuracy in predicting passenger travels)

Analysis:

Life-Cycle:

Using the logistic function results and the generated graph, key phases in the Kyushu Shinkansen's life cycle were identified:

1.Birthing Phase (2004-2010)

Kyushu Shinkansen was partly open in 2004, and passengers remained stable after several years of operation (2007-2010).

2.Growth Phase (2010-2011)

The whole line opened. More areas and passengers benifited from the Shinkansen.

3.Maturity Phase (2011-2020)

Passenger travels almost stabilised, showing the system's consistency.

4.Decline Phase (2020-2021)

A sharp decline occurred in 2020 due to pandemic-related travel restrictions.

Passenger travels dropped dramatically to 7000-8000k, reflecting a temporary collapse in demand.

5. Recovery Phase (2021- Present)

Since 2021, passenger numbers have rebounded as travel restrictions eased.

In 2023, a new high record was hit, likely due to the recovery of international tourism, especially the large increase in Chinese tourists.