Transportation Deployment Casebook/2025/Shenzhen Metro

Quantitative analysis ( Shenzhen Metro)

Obtaining and Overviewing Actual Data:

The annual passenger flow data of Shenzhen Metro from 2004 to 2024 is sourced from the official website of Shenzhen Metro, as shown in Table 1. It can be seen from the table that the passenger flow of Shenzhen Metro is still increasing and has not yet reached saturation.

Table 1

YEAR	INDEPENDENT VARIABLE(millions)	YEAR	INDEPENDENT VARIABLE(millions)
2004	9	2015	930
2005	27	2016	1292
2006	89	2017	1445
2007	118	2018	1866
2008	136	2019	1777
2009	138	2020	1611
2010	160	2021	1990
2011	401	2022	1766
2012	665	2023	2701
2013	777	2024	3085
2014	867

Collect and integrate the existing data to establish an S-curve model to forecast the past, present and future annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro system, and compare the past annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro predicted by the S-curve with the actual data to judge the coincidence between the predicted value and the real value, and then judge the accuracy of the forecast value of the future annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro predicted by the S-curve.

Calculation of data:

Use the data to estimate a three-parameter logistic function:

S(t) = S_{max}/[1+exp(-b(t-t_i)]

where:

• S(t) is the status measure,  (In this paper, it refers to the annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro)
• t is time. (In this paper, the unit is years)
• t_i is the inflection time. (year in which 1/2 S_{max} is achieved),
• S_{max} is saturation status level, （In this paper, the index records the maximum annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro）.
• b is a coefficient to be estimated.

Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the values of b and S_{max}. Since the maximum annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro in the true data is 3085 (millions), the values of S_{max} are set as 3200,3300,3400, etc., and the following formula is used for calculation of each hypothetical value of S_{max}: Y=ln(Passengers/(S_{max}-Passengers))

Then, regression analysis is performed for Y and year, and according to the value of R², the S_{max} value is the most consistent with the actual data. When the value of R² is closer to 1, the corresponding S_{max} value is the most consistent with the actual data.

The "Golden Section Search" is used to find the best S_{max}.

• Set m=2,500 and n=2,700;

• Let m'= m+ (N-m)×0.382 and n'= m+ (n-m)×0.618;

If R squared (m) > R squared (m ') or R squared (m) < R squared (m ') and R squared (n ') < R squared (m), is the best S_ {Max} will be located in the range [m, m '], so the set n = m;

Squared, if R > R squared (n) (n) or R squared (n) < R squared (n ') and R squared (m ') < R squared (n), is the best S_} {Max value will be located in the range [n ', n], so the set m = n ';

• Otherwise, the best S_{max} value must be in the interval [m', n'], so let n= m', so let m= m' and n= n';

• If n-m < 5, complete; Otherwise go to Step 1.

The best S_{max} value can be obtained from the above steps, and all the data predicting the S_{max} value in the steps are shown in Table 2:

Table 2

S_{max}	3200	3300	3350	3370	3380
R²	0.9281875	0.93407	0.934803	0.934097	0.934929
S_{max}	3390	3400	3430	3450	3500
R²	0.934933	0.934922	0.934806	0.934673	0.934194

It can be seen from Table 2 that when S_{max} =3390, R² is the largest, so there is statistical significance within the interval. Therefore, this model basically reflects the actual data.

When S_{max} =3390, the intercept is -650.717, b was estimated to be 0.322383. Therefore, S(t) can be solved according to these variables, so as to determine the estimated annual passenger flow of Shenzhen Metro each year. The result data is marked in green in Figure 1. The actual data is highlighted in blue.

Figure 1. Shenzhen Metro Daily Ridership

The trend and influencing factors of passenger flow:

As can be seen from Figure 1, the actual annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro from 2004 to 2019 is well in line with the S-curve. However, the actual annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro from 2019 to 2022 is quite different from the data predicted by the S-curve, which is speculated to be due to the fact that 2019-2022 is the three most severe years of the COVID-19. To a greater extent, it has affected the daily travel of Shenzhen residents, thus affecting the annual passenger volume of the subway system.

As can be seen from Figure 1, the actual annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro from 2023 to 2024 has been greatly increased, and the actual data has been consistent with the predicted data of the S-curve. According to the S-curve, 2017 is a year to achieve 1/2. Starting from 2024, the annual passenger volume of Shenzhen Metro still maintains a stable rising state, but the rising speed is relatively slow, and gradually approaches the level of passenger flow saturation.

Qualitative analysis:

• Rail and Rolling Stocks:

Shenzhen Metro construction planning began in the 1980s, the first phase of the project includes the construction of Line 1 and Line 4 southern section, the total length of the line is 21.866 kilometers, the line has 19 stations, a control center, and on December 28, 2004, the initial completion of the construction and operation of Shenzhen Metro.

• Initial policy of Shenzhen Metro and its functions:

Under the background of rapid urbanization and rapid economic development, Shenzhen Metro is a series of measures and institutional arrangements formulated to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion, promote urban planning and regional coordinated development, In the early stage of Shenzhen Metro, the Shenzhen municipal government took the leading position, introduced social capital cooperation (such as PPP, BOT, etc.), multi-party financing, and centralized planning. At the same time, the government obtained funds by selling land along the subway line, incorporated subway construction into the overall planning of the city in the top-level design, and promoted the sustainable development of the metro. To ensure that the subway construction project is in line with the urban development goals, this policy not only alleviates the financial pressure, but also feeds the subway construction through the income of land development, forming a virtuous circle and promoting the smooth progress of the subway construction.

2.Technological development of Shenzhen Metro:

•Development and operation of China's domestic A-type subway:

Shenzhen Metro is the main project of China's subway vehicle localization, China's first domestic A-type subway train, the first self-developed A-type subway train and the first batch of subway trains using domestic traction system are operating in Shenzhen Metro.

•From Traditional operations to Automated Control Systems (ATO):

In the early days, Shenzhen Metro mainly relied on traditional manual scheduling and signaling systems. At present, Shenzhen Metro has fully applied automated control systems, which can accurately realize the automatic driving of trains, greatly improve the operation efficiency and safety of trains, accurately regulate trains, and ensure high on-time rate of trains.

•Fully automated driverless technology:

Some trains in Shenzhen Metro use fully automatic driverless technology, and all actions of the train are automatically completed, eliminating all human-caused errors and negative effects in train operation.

•Train Operation Control System (CBTC):

Train operation control system (CBTC) is a technology based on wireless communication to realize real-time information exchange between trains and ground signal equipment, accurately control vehicle distance and vehicle running time, improve the passing capacity of lines and increase the running density of trains, efficiently carry out passenger transportation and relieve traffic pressure during peak periods.

3. Early Market and Metro market:

•Limitations of the automotive market:

At the end of the 20th century, Shenzhen, as a city vigorously supported by China, experienced urbanization and a surge in population and vehicle numbers. However, the city's road planning was relatively backward, and traffic jams often occurred on main roads, resulting in low commuting efficiency. And the popularity of buses is low, the number and frequency are small, resulting in long waiting time and low passenger capacity, which seriously affects people's travel plans.

•Advantages of metro in the market:

As a transportation mode with large passenger capacity and low cost, metro serves the urban commuting market and meets the daily commuting needs of residents. Moreover, metro has special tracks and special scheduling system, which is not affected by ground traffic congestion, has fast running speed and high punctuality rate, and can better ensure that passengers arrive at their destinations on time. Due to the special geographical location of Shenzhen, Shenzhen Metro has a special port station connecting with Hong Kong's railway system to facilitate the movement of people between the mainland and Hong Kong.

4. Future development of Shenzhen Metro:

In order to adapt to the changing market demand, Shenzhen Metro has launched a differentiated fare policy, flexibly setting fares according to factors such as the distance, time, and whether to transfer, and differentiating the fares during peak hours and off-peak hours, and the fares on weekdays and weekends, so as to encourage passengers to travel off-peak and ease the pressure on passenger flow during peak periods.

In order to improve the efficiency of the overall urban transport system, Shenzhen Metro has strengthened the communication and connection with other modes of transport, promoted the development of transport, and intensified the integration with other cities' intercity rail transit, promoted the rail docking between Shenzhen and its surrounding cities, and facilitated the flow of people between Shenzhen and its surrounding cities.

At the same time, Shenzhen Metro has vigorously promoted the comprehensive coverage of automated control systems, actively applied big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to optimize the operation and management of the subway, and strive to achieve zero errors, zero delays and zero accidents in the entire Shenzhen metro system, and improve the stability and safety of subway operation. Some subway stations have begun to upgrade to smart stations, equipped with intelligent devices such as automatic ticket checking, intelligent navigation, passenger behavior monitoring and vehicle operation monitoring to improve passengers' travel experience.