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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2025/Zhenghou Metro

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1. Qualitative

Technology

The first subway in Zhengzhou opened in 2013, marking the beginning of a major improvement in the city’s existing transportation model. Metro Line 1 connects the High-tech Zone and East University City, connecting underground commuters in the east-west direction of Zhengzhou, improving the efficiency of urban transportation and cultivating a large number of passenger flows. The line is powered by a 1500V direct current overhead line and uses a communication-based train control system, which is capable of realizing automatic train control.

Context Zhengzhou is a central metropolis in China. The Lianhuo Expressway, Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, Longhai Railway, and Beijing-Guangzhou Railway converge here. It welcomes passengers from all over China every day and is the most important transportation hub in China. Before 2012, Zhengzhou's population was mainly concentrated in the area within the Fourth Ring Road, and the main population mobility mode was commuting in the east-west direction. However, with the continuous growth of the city's population, traditional means of transportation such as electric vehicles and buses have gradually failed to meet the travel needs of the morning and evening rush hours. Citizens in the West District have to endure a two-hour one-way commuting time every day. The increase in the number of private cars not only seriously occupies road resources but also emits a large amount of exhaust gas to pollute the environment.Therefore, the subway Line 1 was planned to run through the main urban area to facilitate the daily travel of citizens within the Fourth Ring Road. So far, the commuting time within the Third Ring Road of Zhengzhou has been reduced from the original two hours to 40 minutes, providing a lot of convenience for office workers.

Invention

Zhengzhou Metro has now developed into the main mode of travel for Zhengzhou citizens and has gradually replaced some public transportation. However, the construction of the subway has added a lot of pressure to urban transportation within a few years. As early as 2009, Zhengzhou planned the Second Ring BRT line to improve the operating efficiency of the main urban area. However, with the increase in population, the bus transportation system has long been unable to meet the needs of large passenger flows, so the government began to plan a ring subway line (Line 5) to replace the BRT system. Since the construction of the BRT system cost a lot of money and most of the platforms had to be demolished to cooperate with the construction of the subway, it caused dissatisfaction among a large number of people at the time. In the end, the government gave up the plan to completely replace the BRT system with the subway and retained some platforms to provide travel convenience for residents within the second ring.At the same time, in order to avoid the problem of long construction time and excessive occupation of land resources in multiple urban projects, the government decided to construct the Longhai Road Station of Metro Line 5 at the same time as the Longhai Elevated Road and the Tongbai Road underpass. During the construction period, lanes will be kept open for ground traffic as much as possible and multiple shield machines will be used for cyclic operation.

Early Market Development

Zhengzhou Metro starts charging by mileage with a starting price of two yuan. In order to facilitate citizens' travel and make profits at the same time, Zhengzhou Metro is planned to mainly serve the city's main roads and CBD areas, and provide travel convenience for students from major universities in Zhengzhou. When the subway just started to develop in Zhengzhou, due to the small number of lines and large passenger flow, a profitable model gradually emerged, and there was no excessive competition for passenger flow with bus companies. However, since COVID, people's travel patterns and travel needs have been affected. Although subway passenger flow and revenue are in a state of growth, the subway company has suffered large losses due to excessive line planning and capital investment in recent years. The total revenue in 2023 is 639 million yuan, an increase of 18.92% year-on-year compared with the first half of the year, and the net loss is about 61.49 million yuan. The total revenue in 2024 is 1.278 billion yuan, and the total passenger volume has reached 710 million. At the same time, in order to expand the urban framework and link the surrounding local economies, Zhengzhou has also gradually developed subways to surrounding cities in recent years. At present, Zhengzhou and Xuchang have achieved railway linkage, which has provided great convenience for friendly exchanges and cross-city employment between the two cities. Since then, Zhengzhou Metro has gradually transformed from serving the city's citizens during peak hours to a pioneer in expanding the city's scope and attracting investment.

The Role of Policy

In terms of policy, the development and construction of Zhengzhou Metro has received constructive guidance from the state and strong support from local governments. As early as 2012, the State Council of China issued the [Opinions on Prioritizing the Development of Urban Public Transportation], which established a public transportation priority development strategy to promote the construction of subways and other rail transit, and made it clear that the government can provide financial subsidies to encourage diversified investment models. Many construction companies and construction parties participated in the project bidding and provided a large number of labor forces for urban development. In addition to considering revenue from passenger flow, Zhengzhou Metro proposed for the first time the development of subway commercial complexes (such as station shops and advertising leasing) to attract investment and increase urban revenue. At the same time, with the country's emphasis on the control of air pollution in recent years, underground public transportation is conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction, and promotes the construction of environmentally friendly cities. The subway has become the most important project in the transportation planning outline. At the same time, Zhengzhou has begun planning the second phase of Metro Line 10, which will run from Zhengzhou West Railway Station to Shangjie District Airport, and will provide new development momentum for China's aluminum industry and aviation transportation industry.

Growth The planning of the Shangjie section of Zhengzhou Metro Line 10 has not been carried out as scheduled. The government has taken into account the interests of some private passenger transport industries. Shangjie District is the westernmost suburban area of ​​Zhengzhou, and commuting to the main urban area mainly relies on private buses. In recent years, with the introduction of the suburban integration policy, the government has planned to trial-operate K12 and K409 buses to connect the development of Shangjie District in order to accelerate the construction of urban linkage. However, considering that public public transportation projects will have a huge impact on the traditional passenger transport industry and may cause a large number of people to lose their jobs, the planning of public buses was eventually abandoned and the construction of the second phase of Metro Line 10 was postponed. At the same time, the subway project spans Xingyang City. Since the problem of occupation of some land resources has not been resolved, the second phase of the project may change the original line plan and protect local buildings. In addition, due to the implementation of the national air pollution prevention and control regulations, some ground construction areas of the Phase II project of Line 10 still need to be partially rectified to reduce urban dust. Some areas with more civil engineering projects (especially outside the Fourth Ring Road of Zhengzhou) need to reschedule the construction period.

Maturity

At present, the subway development in Zhengzhou's main urban areas has been perfected, and underground transportation is already saturated. At the same time, in order to cooperate with the impact of subway construction on urban travel patterns, the bus department has also planned more than 80 community bus routes, so that you can take a bus when you leave the subway station, so that you can definitely take a bus within 500 meters of the eight districts in the city. Since then, rail transit has replaced most ground public transportation and provided great convenience for long-distance travel. Zhengzhou Bus Company has continuously cooperated with the construction of the subway and cancelled many bus routes that overlap with the subway. Recently, there is a trend of merging bus companies and subway companies, which will be conducive to the unified management of urban planning and the coordinated dispatch of public transportation, and improve the efficiency of capital utilization. Zhengzhou Metro has also expanded from the original service model within the Fourth Ring Road to an important means to drive the development of the surrounding local economy. At present, due to the opening and operation of Metro Line 8, the tourism economy of Zhongmu Town has grown rapidly, the income of local farmers has gradually increased, and more and more Zhongmu citizens have begun to look for jobs in Zhengzhou, promoting communication and exchanges between the two cities.

2. Quantitative

The total daily passengers refers to the three-parameter logistic function: S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)] where: S(t) is the Predicted total daily passengers, t is time (in years), ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved), Smax is saturation total total daily passengers, b is a coefficient to be estimate. Year Average daily passenger volume (10,000 people) S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)] 2013 7.6 1.1756E-21 2014 15.1 8.03674E-18 2015 16.4 5.49415E-14 2016 21.9 3.75596E-10 2017 30.1 2.56768E-06 2018 35.6 0.017550821 2019 60.3 60 2020 68.5 119.9824492 2021 74 119.9999974 2022 82.2 120 2023 95.9 120 Smax = 120 y=8.83x-1.23,where x is year (1-11),y is passenger. Due to the slow construction progress at the beginning of the subway construction, the total mileage was small, resulting in a small average daily passenger flow. However, as the cumulative total mileage continued to increase, the passenger flow also increased exponentially. In this model, the passenger flow values ​​in 2013 and 2023 were used as the two extreme values ​​of the linear equation for linear estimation, and the b value was 8.83. Total passenger traffic has been growing steadily, with the HWA-AnalyzeLifeCycle estimation model showing a generally saturated passenger traffic growth in 2019 and a rapid linear growth from 2019 to 2023.

References 1.Zhengzhou Metro(2024) wiki wikipedia.org Zhengzhou_Metro

2.Zhengzhou Transportation Development Investment(2024)Fitch Ratings from:https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/zhengzhou-metro-group-co-ltd-96657341

3."7401工程：郑州人33年前的地铁梦" [Project 7401: the Metro Dream of Zhengzhou 33 Years Ago] (in Chinese (China)). 2007-11-12. Retrieved 2018-11-21.from:http://city.sina.com.cn/city/2007-11-12/92976.html

4."郑州地铁获国务院批准 每公里成本近6亿今年开工" (in Chinese (China)). 大河网 Dahe.cn. 2009-02-13. Retrieved 2018-09-12.from:https://www.dahe.cn/xwzx/sz/t20090213_1484857.htm

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